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A Deeply Undervalued Play in the Refining Sector

A Deeply Undervalued Play in the Refining Sector | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
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Investors Europe Stock Brokers's curator insight, July 21, 2013 12:01 PM
Inside Investor with Dan Dicker

A Deeply Undervalued Play in the Refining Sector

Two weeks ago before my vacation, my inbox filled with questions surrounding the refining space and CVRR in particular, an MLP that I recommended at its IPO price of $25.  In my columns in OilPrice.com, I've spoken recently about the refiners and the difficulty I thought they would continue to see in the coming months.  I even made the case that the mid-Continental refiners, of which CVRR's 'parent' company CVR Energy (CVI) is one, would in fact be in for the worst case of all the refiners, save for the refiners relying upon crude-by-rail.

So how can I still be favorable towards CVRR with the negative outlook I have towards the refiners and CVR Energy in particular?

The question goes a long way to understanding how fundamentals get translated into trading ideas and how there are often values to be had - even in sectors that are up against it fundamentally.  

Yes, it is true that the disintegrating WTI/Brent spread is putting tremendous pressure on the margins of refiners, particularly mid-con refiners -- it was this that forced the new and horrible guidance from Valero (VLO) in their recent quarterly report to shareholders on EPS -- and we imagine that other refiners are sure to follow with negative reports and outlooks.  CVRR is hardly immune to this; As the Brent/WTI spread goes to parity and beyond, as I think it will, their margins and revenue will also decline, putting their very generous distribution is some jeopardy.

So, am I recommending that this stock be sold? On the contrary. There is nothing in the fundamental outlook for CVRR that isn't already deeply represented in the stock.  In addition the original IPO price was so deeply undervalued to the potential distribution that even slightly weaker margins cannot push the price of shares down much more, in my view.  Add that to the secondary offering about a month ago that was designed to purchase shares back from the parent company and the overwhelming interest of super trader Carl Icahn in the company, and you've got a stock that has been sold off significantly based upon a refinery trade without regard to its individual strengths.   

Let's recap -- The current distribution being delivered by CVRR at $6.32 a share represents over 22% in yearly dividend. With the current environment for the refiners and particularly the mid-cons, that distribution is almost guaranteed to take a cut, although probably not before Q1 in 2014.  The stock has made a run as high as $35, which was more in line with a stable distribution, but with shares closer to the original IPO price, this remains one of the few values in refiner MLP's left.  

My recommendation has also recently included sale of call options against owned shares, a covered call strategy which will offset any cut in the quarterly distribution that's almost sure to come.  

In short, you can dislike a sector fundamentally but still see value in individual issues inside that sector where it exists.  And in CVRR, I still see that value strongly.  Recommended. 

Source : www.oilprice.com



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Trade Offshore Now!

Trade Offshore Now! | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it

Download a free 20-day trial version of Offshore Trader and try trading on live, streaming prices.

Investors Europe |Skype: investorseurope | Phone:+230 5 449 0369 +350 200 44266 | Fax: +350 216 28936 |trading@investorseurope.com

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Argentine Eurobond Holders Sue Euroclear, BNY Mellon: Tiempo

Argentine Eurobond Holders Sue Euroclear, BNY Mellon: Tiempo | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Several funds holding Argentine restructured bonds began legal actions against Euroclear and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in...
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Irish economy bounces back! @investorseurope global stock brokers

Irish economy bounces back! @investorseurope global stock brokers | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it

'Ireland's economy grew by 2.7 per cent in the first quarter and new European Union rules on calculating output significantly increased the size of the economy, raising the chances the government can ease its austerity measures later this year, reportsReuters.

Employment and consumer sentiment...'

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'FATCA Explained in 4 Minutes...' #mustseevideo

'FATCA Explained in 4 Minutes...' #mustseevideo | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
Buy the essay here: http://www.amazon.com/FATCA-New-Birth-American-Empire-ebook/dp/B00GVFLO3U/ FATCA is a crazy law that the United States... (#mustseevideo 'FATCA Explained in 4 Minutes...'...
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Tax avoidance advisers 'should be prosecuted' (and burnt slowly on a spit?) @offshoretrader1

Tax avoidance advisers 'should be prosecuted' (and burnt slowly on a spit?) @offshoretrader1 | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
The Times (subscription)
Tax avoidance advisers 'should be prosecuted'
The Times (subscription)
Lawyers and accountants who promote aggressive tax avoidance schemes should face criminal prosecution, according to a Conservative MP.
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Time to Get Back Into Oil and Mining Stocks? @investorseurope Mauritius Stock Brokers

2014 I might concentrate on energy, but that doesn’t mean I devote every waking hour to reading quarterlies of E+P companies and oil stockpile reports.  Recently, I read a copy of the special report on alternative investments from the Money Management Institute – certainly not written to influence a view on oil prices.  But do you know what that overview of capital flows of alternative investments told me?  It helped confirm my belief that oil is indeed headed higher.

The Money Management Institute (MMI) is composed of virtually every important asset management group and together contributes data that charts the course of where large individual and family trust money is moving.  The 2014 issue of the MMI research report on Alternative Assets distribution through wirehouses appeared on May 2nd, and gives an overview on the way that asset allocation of big investors has been trending in the last year, as well as how that has changed in the last three years.  

Two major takeaways exploded out at me with even a cursory look at the report.  First, it’s very clear that big money investors are moving rapidly away from traditional alternative investments like hedge funds and into what are being called ‘liquid’ alternatives, like ETF baskets and mutual funds.  This makes a lot of intuitive sense as hedge funds have racked up two sub-par years, at least compared to the major indexes. But the shift is also obviously in response to the big hedge fund scandals that have emerged in the last several years, including Galleon, SAC and of course Bernie Madoff – investors are clearly looking for a quicker rip-cord to investments that are in trouble, instead of the lock-up periods and quarterly requests for distributions that most traditional hedge funds require.  

But a second takeaway has a more important impact on the assets that are likely to do well in the coming year and those that are destined to underperform.

It is a good rule of thumb in investing that you’d rather not be following the herd: study after study shows that the majority of investors buy assets just as they are reaching their apex and sell them just as they have reached their cyclical lows.  

Last year’s 30% rise in equities was due to a great degree in the disbelief of investors in the dizzying heights of stock indexes,  and instead chose overwhelmingly to pour most of their money into bond funds or stay on the sidelines altogether.

And what do the trends show for the 2014 report?  More of the same.  

Once again, non-traditional bond funds showed a sequential increase of 46% of inflows in 2013, an even greater increase than 2012, followed by a 24% increase in long/short (spread) equity fund offerings.  And which non-traditional funds showed the greatest outflows?  That’s right, you guessed it:  Commodity basket funds and managed futures as well as equity metals funds.

“If they’re selling, I’m buying” – this is a simple investment maxim that alone could make you a fortune – if you can determine just when the public is selling and when it’s buying.  The latest MMI report can’t break down just precisely when these trends are going to end and when the public is going to go all in on commodities and other risk assets. However, it does appear, at least for now, that the smart bet is to stay long all those things that look overpriced to so many – and stay out of all those things that look so safe.  

This is not going to end well, I will admit.  When the public does decide that they have missed out on a great profit and tries to buy stocks and gold and oil again near the highs, you’ll again have to be smart and get off the rising coaster.  But that’s not today.

It’s in fact still a great environment to be long high beta stocks, Oil and maybe even finally time to get back into those awful mining stocks that have disappointed for so long.

Source: oilprice.com

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Dolce and Gabbana 18 months jail for evading 200m euros in tax @investorseurope stock brokers

Dolce and Gabbana 18 months jail for evading  200m euros in tax @investorseurope stock brokers | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
Last week fashion designers Domenico Dolce and Stefano Gabbana were sentenced to 18 months in jail in Italy for evading up to 200 million euros in tax, by using a holding company in Luxembourg call...
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What is a 'Nominee Trading Account' ?

What is a 'Nominee Trading Account' ? | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it

nominee trading account opened with our Parent Company, Investors Europe Mauritius, is a private, individually segregated online client trading account for an individual (or individuals) or a companytrust or fund. This trading account is denominated by a number (e.g."MSB 502") and is controlled by the investor who benefits from exactly the same protection he would get if he traded in his own name, thus protecting his right to financial privacy.

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To open your free trial account, fill out the sign-up form on this page. Once you have submitted the form, your user ID and password will be sent to the email address you specify.


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Company owner is dead Russian and he ‘attends’ Company meeting in London.

Company owner is dead Russian and he ‘attends’ Company meeting in London. | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
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How Chinese offshore data became interactive @investorseurope stock brokers

How Chinese offshore data became interactive @investorseurope stock brokers | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
Behind a simple display was months of concerted work by journalists in at least ten countries.
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Top international laws firms in London: American pie and chips

Top international laws firms in London: American pie and chips | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
While some US firms had a rougher ride in this year’s survey, the West Coasters have found London a home from home
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Global Financial Integrity

Global Financial Integrity | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
Global Financial Integrity (GFI) is a research and advocacy organization working to curtail illicit financial flows out of developing countries.
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U.S. FBI conducting a probe into Herbalife

NEW YORK/BOSTON, April 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. FBI is probing Herbalife Ltd, the nutrition and weight loss company that hedge fund manager William Ackman has called a pyramid scheme, sources familiar...

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Dark pool scrutiny no slam dunk for traditional exchanges @investorseurope offshore stock Brokers

Dark pool scrutiny no slam dunk for traditional exchanges @investorseurope offshore stock Brokers | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
By Lionel Laurent and Clare HutchisonLONDON (Reuters) - The regulatory noose is tightening around dark pools, private share-trading venues that pro...
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The class divide in a couple of diagrams @investorseurope

The class divide in a couple of diagrams @investorseurope | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it

The government says it is concerned about sugar reduction. These charts comes from page 10 of their report on the issue:There is the class divide, graphically illustrated.

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Le petit pays à côté de celui d’Heidi @offshorebroker

Le petit pays à côté de celui d’Heidi @offshorebroker | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it


Entre Alpes et Rhin, Suisse et Autriche, l’inconnue Vaduz est la capitale de la principauté du Liechtenstein. Un mini-pays ou l’on trouve autant de chalets que de banques, de lacs que de vignes. ...



Via Alcofribas
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Argentina : Griesa Versus Cristina; Act I Scene I Stage Right

Argentina : Griesa Versus Cristina; Act I Scene I  Stage Right | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
After a day of fury and discussions with cabinet members, advisors and experts, Argentine president Cristina Fernandez will be sending a government delegation to New York to meet Judge Thomas Griesa and the hedge funds holdouts' solicitors and begin, hopefully, a round of negotiations to reach a settlement on the bonds litigation.
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The Impact of Public Officials’ Corruption on the Size and Allocation of U.S. State Spending

The Impact of Public Officials’ Corruption on the Size and Allocation of U.S. State Spending | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it

This article demonstrates the impact of public officials’ corruption on the size and allocation of U.S. state spending. Extending two theories of “excessive” government expansion, the authors argue that public officials’ corruption should cause state spending to be artificially elevated. Corruption increased state spending over the period 1997–2008. During that time, the 10 most corrupt states could have reduced their total annual expenditure by an average of $1,308 per capita—5.2 percent of the mean per capita state expenditure—if corruption had been at the average level of the states. Moreover, at the expense of social sectors, corruption is likely to distort states’ public resource allocations in favor of higher-potential “bribe-generating” spending and items directly beneficial to public officials, such as capital, construction, highways, borrowing, and total salaries and wages. The authors use an objective, concrete, and consistent measurement of corruption, the number of convictions.

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« L’Europe est une machine à inaction. »

« L’Europe est une machine à inaction. » | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
Dans son n°61, Fakir publiait « Ce qui mine, c'est le sentiment d'impuissance », une longue interviou d'Emmanuel Todd, sur son désenchantement du « hollandisme révolutionnaire », le libre-échange, la nation, la monnaie unique, le passivisme. Autant de thèmes que le démographe évoquait dans « L'Illusion économique », il y a quinze ans, déjà. Dans la bataille des idées qui est en cours sur l'Europe, l'euro, l'Allemagne, on en a ressorti quelques extraits, bien d'actualité. La vidéo de cet entretien à la fin de (...)

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Push for tax-avoidance curbs in G-20 threatens Publicis-Omnicom deal

Push for tax-avoidance curbs in G-20 threatens Publicis-Omnicom deal | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
euronews Push for tax-avoidance curbs in G-20 threatens Publicis-Omnicom deal euronews LONDON (Reuters) – International pressure to curb corporate tax avoidance is behind delays to a $35 billion (20.8 billion pounds) merger of French advertising...

Via Proactive Consult
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Barclays Is Expected to Announce Exit From Commodities @investorseurope futures and options

Barclays Is Expected to Announce Exit From Commodities @investorseurope futures and options | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it
With profits failing to meet expectations, Barclays is expected to sell or shut its metals, energy and agricultural commodities business, following the leads of Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase.
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Dublin’s shadow banks

Dublin’s shadow banks | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it

Dublin’s shadow banks

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What’s a tax haven?

What’s a tax haven? | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it

What’s a tax haven?

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(Ras)Putin talks tough, Lavrov talks conciliation : Bad Cop, Good Cop @offshorebroker

(Ras)Putin talks tough, Lavrov talks conciliation : Bad Cop, Good Cop @offshorebroker | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it

"The Federation Council granted the president the right to use military force in Ukraine. I really hope that I do not have to exercise this right and that we are able to solve all today's pressing issues via political and diplomatic means," he said.

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Casinos & offshore companies battle for billions in online gambling push @offshoretrader1

Casinos & offshore companies battle for billions in online gambling push @offshoretrader1 | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it

TucsonSentinel.com Casinos & offshore companies battle for billions in online gambling push TucsonSentinel.com Advocates for Internet gambling, including an aggressive Washington lobbying group for poker players that's funded by the offshore online...

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Australia, China push to establish Sydney as offshore trading center of Renminbi @ offshorebroker

Australia, China push to establish Sydney as offshore trading center of Renminbi @ offshorebroker | Offshore Trader | Scoop.it

Australia, China push to establish Sydney as offshore trading center of Renminbi CCTV CANBERRA, April 11 (Xinhua) -- Australia and China have agreed to enhance offshore market development of the Renminbi (RMB) and the central banks of both...

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